If the CIA director personally flies to Russia, that’s something extraordinary

It is clear that a personal visit by a figure of this caliber is an extraordinary event. As a rule, it is one of the last attempts to halt an escalation or to clearly define the “red lines” of U.S. interests. It is worth recalling the CIA director’s previous visit to Moscow in the fall of 2021, when Washington was already aware of Russia’s preparations for a full-scale war and was trying to avert it at the last minute.

Even during wartime, when traditional diplomacy through embassies and foreign ministries breaks down, intelligence agencies continue to communicate. For example, it is precisely thanks to this that prisoner exchanges take place. And when Russia and Ukraine moved to the public phase of negotiations earlier this year, the meetings in Abu Dhabi took place specifically at the level of intelligence agency representatives.

Information is regularly exchanged between the U.S. and Russian intelligence agencies. The normal course of events does not require the personal involvement of top leadership. But if the CIA director personally flies to a country that has unleashed the largest war in postwar Europe, it indicates something extraordinary.

There could be countless possibilities. Obviously, most of them would be related to U.S. efforts to prevent Russia from escalating the war.

The methods of escalation are well known: ranging from a large-scale mobilization in Russia to a limited invasion of EU countries.

Two weeks ago, U.S. media outlets, citing U.S. military intelligence, reported that Russia could launch military operations on NATO’s eastern flank as early as this fall.

Therefore, the message that the U.S. will fulfill its obligations as a NATO member is worth having the CIA director convey it personally. A Russian attack on a NATO country is possible only if the Kremlin is 100 percent certain that the U.S. will not intervene. Even a 1% probability of a direct confrontation with the U.S. is a risk that Putin would not take without proper preparation. A war against the U.S. would spell disaster for him personally and mean the loss of power—and that is practically the only criterion that Putin takes seriously.

Another possibility could be an escalation in the Black Sea. Throughout the summer, Russia and Ukraine have been actively destroying grain export infrastructure. This could lead to a global grain crisis, as the global market could lose about 30% of its total supply. The consequences will extend far beyond Europe, as both countries are major suppliers to North Africa and the Middle East. Against the backdrop of an abnormal heat wave in Europe and an oil crisis caused by the war in the Persian Gulf, the disruption to grain exports will inevitably trigger a global food crisis, a wave of conflicts in the countries affected by this crisis, and a new wave of migration to the EU and the U.S. While diplomacy may not currently be able to stop the war as a whole, it is entirely possible to influence certain aspects of it. And since many countries are interested in resuming grain exports, this issue could also have been the reason for the visit.

Of course, no one really knows the true purpose of this trip. It could have been about more mundane matters—such as securing the release of Americans detained in Russia or addressing certain technical issues. But one thing is certain: this visit bears the least resemblance to an attempt to revive the peace process aimed at ending the war in Ukraine. Putin remains determined to wage war, and this war will continue until he is physically unable to continue it.

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