By bombarding Kyiv with ballistic missiles, Putin is hastening Russia's defeat

But what's new here?

From the very beginning of the full-scale invasion, we’ve been facing a much more powerful army. One that’s better armed. And has access to weapons we don’t have. And that won’t change.

But, most importantly, “we’ve been through this before.” We’ve been living under these conditions for five years now. So the mere fact that ballistic missile strikes are taking place doesn’t change anything. Because Russia can strike. But these strikes don’t bring the Russians victory. Yes, they kill. Yes, they destroy property. Yes, they ruin the lives of millions of people. But that doesn’t bring them victory.

Last summer, we weren’t yet able to counter massive waves of kamikaze drones. And back then, they attacked Kyiv with hundreds of kamikaze drones. Now—a few dozen ballistic missiles. Which is better?

But here’s the key point: this does not bring victory to the Russians. And it doesn’t change the core idea of the conflict—the exhaustion of Russia’s economy. An economy that is being drained not so much by our strikes… although this adds to the pressure with the tactic of a thousand small cuts… but since 2022, we’ve been dealing with far more of those cuts… But just as Russian strikes on the Ukrainian rear do not cause us to collapse, so too are the visually satisfying sights of burning warehouses or oil refineries in Ukraine incapable of leading to economic catastrophe. On their own. Which doesn’t negate the fact that they influence the mood of Russians, cause losses, and simply boost the morale of Ukrainians.

The economy is being drained by the very fact of the war—by the fact that all resources are being spent on the war. Because war is very expensive. And Ukraine can sustain this conflict because it has unprecedented foreign support. But Russia lacks this support. The North Korean missiles currently flying toward our logistics centers are purchased with money. They buy foreign components for their missiles from all over the world with money. Gasoline is also transported from Morocco to Murmansk for them—again, with money. China, Iran, North Korea—they all provide services to Russia or sell goods for money. Russia recruits mercenaries into its army for money. Shells, drones, bullets—all of this costs money. Soldiers also need to eat. That’s why war drains any economy.

And now Russia has reached the point where it can no longer maintain “sound economic policy” and finance the war. They’ve spent all their savings. And now they have to find money by creating it out of thin air. Does this stop Putin? As we can see, no. But this brings closer the intensification and deepening—an accelerated deepening—of Russia’s economic problems. Because you can’t just crank up the printing press and think the economy won’t feel the consequences. What’s more, everyone knows this. And so does Russian business. Not the Instagram influencers who cry that a dildo burned in their warehouse. No, we’re talking about serious, big-time players—men and women—who are beginning to sense the approaching crisis. They don’t want to lose everything, so they’re starting to cut back on spending. They’re starting to pull back on investments. They’re starting to move money out of Russia at a faster pace. These are perfectly logical actions. But these very actions are bringing that crisis closer and intensifying it. And it won’t come quickly, of course. But the cheaper oil gets—the less money the Russian economy receives from oil and gas sales—the faster the crisis will arrive. And the harder it will hit.

This was supposed to happen back in 2022. But at that time, Russian businesses believed their own propaganda. And they weren’t afraid. Back then, there was still a safety margin. Now, none of that remains. And that is precisely why the crisis is becoming inevitable.

And the root cause here isn’t a burning warehouse. The root cause is the violation of the Central Bank’s independence. The root cause is the destruction of the foundations of macrofinancial stability, which have been the cornerstone of Russia’s economic resilience for decades. The root cause is Putin’s demand to find money at any cost.

Are these processes happening quickly? No. And that’s why Putin thinks he always has time to pull the emergency brake. Especially with winter ahead, which can be made very uncomfortable for the residents of Kyiv. And again and again, he’ll bombard them with propagandists on social media who will loudly shout about “peace at any cost.” But this strategy comes at a price. Every day takes its toll on Russia’s economy. Every new day drains its resources. And if spring comes to Ukraine, it won’t come to the Russian economy as long as the war continues.

So even those nights when Putin bombards Kyiv with ballistic missiles bring Russia closer to defeat, not to Putin’s victory. As paradoxical as that may sound. Because Putin is capable of destroying a specific warehouse or a specific business. But he is not capable of undermining Ukraine’s macrofinancial stability. Because we have constant support. However, he can undermine Russia’s macrofinancial stability. And he is constantly doing just that. Even on dark nights, when he gleefully watches the results of the shelling of Ukrainian cities.

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