Russia will suffer much more than we will: I see no other way than to cut Moscow off from the Baltic Sea

Turkey has blocked passage through the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles. The Turks explain that they are so concerned about the safety of shipping that they are not granting permission for ships to pass through to Ukrainian (and Russian) ports.

The Sultanate is playing its own game.

And what about us?

Over the past four years, unfortunately, we haven’t made much of an effort to prepare for a maritime blockade. In that time, we could have modernized existing rail lines and even built new ones to create more capacity for exports.

Ukraine has already begun to suffer major economic losses as a result. There’s no way to export grain or import ore. Several mining and metallurgical complexes have already shut down.

Well, let’s assume that the current government officials are incompetent and clueless. But surely the wealthy must have had some sense?

Take Akhmetov, for example, who has been an active real estate investor on the Côte d’Azur in recent years.

Domestic entrepreneurs, despite possessing colossal resources, sat idly by for years and watched as Russia gradually built up its missile and drone capabilities. In recent months, it has been obvious—they’re going to cut us off from the sea.

Did they hope that the heroism of the Ukrainian army and the miraculous help of our allies would solve all their problems?

But ships are burning in the waters off Odesa, and the straits are closed. At the borders, thousands of trucks are stuck in traffic jams; there aren’t enough roads, and there aren’t enough railways. That’s the “surprise.”

What should we do?

I see no other way than to block Moscow’s access to the Baltic Sea.

First, we have grounds to do so. 100% of our sea lanes are blocked, and we have every moral right to respond to the aggressor in kind.

Second, we have the technical capability. We regularly strike the Russian Caspian Flotilla, flying long distances over Russian territory and bypassing air defense echelons. The Baltic Sea is roughly the same distance from Ukraine as the Caspian Sea.

According to some estimates, restricting Russia’s oil and gas revenues (over 70% of which come from exports via the Baltic and Black Seas) could triple the budget deficit to 5–6 percent of GDP, create a current account deficit exceeding $100 billion (approximately another 5–6 percent of GDP), and lead to a 9–10 percent decline in Russia’s GDP in real terms.

And that’s just hydrocarbons; there are also container and bulk exports and imports by the Russian Federation via these routes.

With the Black Sea closed off, as it is now, the situation is more advantageous for Russia than for Ukraine.

Closing the Baltic Sea reverses the situation entirely—Russia will suffer far more than we will. We must act.

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