
investment banker
Now the Russian elite will get the message that a catastrophe is looming
I am very pleased that Russia has fired VEB’s chief economist, Klepach, who dared to speak out in May and tell the truth about the state of the Russian economy and its prospects.
He predicted social upheaval and an economic crisis, saying that Russia is in decline and cannot force Ukraine to surrender because it is incapable of crippling the Ukrainian economy—thanks to Western support.
First of all, I don’t feel sorry for Klepach. He’s no friend of Ukraine. And he says so openly himself. So now this imperialist has lost his job. He could theoretically end up behind bars. Or someone might slip some “Novichok” into his underwear.
Second, I thought, a smart Russian imperialist lost his job. And the fewer smart ones there are, the better for us. But it turns out he’s, damn it, a theorist of “Russia’s Energy-Information Cosmism.” Well, obviously a nutcase. It’s interesting, though, how he managed to say anything sensible. But the fact that a complete nutcase served as the chief economist of Russia’s VEB for 12 years is very interesting and speaks volumes about the Russian bank.
And here’s the key point. His dismissal became the catalyst for attention to his words. Because someone said something—and that’s all. Who remembers that? But now, 10 or 100 times more people among Russians (and perhaps among Western elites) will pay attention to what he said. Because he was fired. And that means he spoke the truth—the truth that Putin and his 70-year-old old men fear. And now, in very expensive Russian kitchens and very expensive Russian restaurants, everyone will be discussing what he said. And they’ll consider it the most realistic scenario. Because, otherwise, why would they have fired him? Why would Putin be afraid of that? And that means the Russian elite will get the message that a catastrophe is looming.
Why is this important? Not because they’ll suddenly unite and kill Putin. They’re scared. So no one will do that.
So what will they do? If the catastrophe can’t be stopped by killing the dictator, they’ll have to minimize losses. That’s what they’ll think. And they’ll start working toward that goal: moving even more money out of Russia and investing even less in Russian businesses. They’ll finally start acting rationally in anticipation of the crisis. Which will significantly accelerate that crisis. And thus accelerate the depletion of the Russian economy. And thus affect Putin’s ability to wage war.
And Klepach isn’t the only sign of fear. Take, for example, the completely rigged elections, from which they removed the utterly harmless “Yabloko” party—a party that could never have harmed anyone. But even they were feared. And everyone heard the signal: He’s afraid. Which means he has something to fear. Which means he senses his own weakness. A wonderful signal.
And again, no one is going to think that just because the dictator is weak, he should be killed. Because that’s scary. But you definitely need to hide your money.
A wonderful signal.
And it’s funny that right now, Putin’s own system is weakening him. It wasn’t the Russian president who ordered his dismissal. Most likely, the head of VEB, Putin’s big bank, saw this video or these quotes somewhere. And he shit himself. Out of fear. That now Putin will think he’s plotting against the dictator. When a rival firm brings this to him in a folder. And he wanted to get rid of the problem. So he fired the problem. Which amplified the effect many times over. A perfect result of a system built on fear and loyalty.
Author

Sergiy Fursa investment banker
All materialsUkrainian investment banker, financial expert, columnist, radio and television host