Drone attacks are shattering Russians' illusions: they no longer believe the war will end soon, according to a study
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Regular strikes by Ukrainian drones on oil refineries and Wildberries warehouses deep within Russia are significantly shifting public sentiment in Russian regions. However, Russians do not share a unified vision for ending the war.
This is evidenced by the results of a survey of Russian regional communities conducted by the nonprofit organization Join Ukraine.
The study analyzed Russians’ reactions to Ukrainian UAV strikes on Russian regions.
The monitoring of regional communities covered 536 groups on VKontakte and 428 Telegram channels.
There is no consensus within Russian society on how to end the war: some demand Ukraine’s surrender, while others call for an end to hostilities
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The rhetoric differs most significantly in regions where air raid sirens and explosions are a regular occurrence.
In the Perm Krai, public sentiment began to shift following Ukrainian drone attacks that have been ongoing since May. Strikes on oil refineries and industrial facilities in Samara, Syzran, Novokuybyshevsk, and Togliatti have sparked a wave of anxiety and defiant calls to end the war. Even deep in the rear, in the Kemerovo region, Russians are being affected by attacks in neighboring Omsk and the widespread construction of shelters
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Research shows that a significant portion of the population wants the troops to return home and for the shelling to stop, but does not believe a quick peace is possible. Discussions of specific political scenarios are rare—most people dream of a return to normal life.
A radical segment of the audience continues to insist on “victory” on the Kremlin’s terms, demanding tougher action from Russia’s military leadership
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Researchers emphasize that, according to the survey, the Russian authorities are accused of both “dragging out the war” and “not being tough enough,” which hinders the achievement of their stated goals.
The poll results do not suggest that Russians have en masse become opponents of the war. At the same time, however, a clear expectation of a protracted conflict has taken shape in the regional information space. Russians no longer view the war against Ukraine as a short campaign that is supposed to end in a quick victory
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Social media monitoring was conducted from July 27 to August 2, 2026.
As a reminder, the majority of Ukrainians oppose ceding the entire Donbas to Russia, even in exchange for security guarantees. According to a KMIS survey, 60% of respondents stated that they consider such a scenario categorically unacceptable. At the same time, 33% of those surveyed are willing to accept such a condition, although most of them note that it would be a very difficult decision. Another 7% of respondents remain undecided.
Author
Igor Neporada news feed editor
All materialsHe has a degree in oil and gas processing technology, but has been working in the media since 2000.
He has worked as a regional editor for the following television channels: Espreso, UA/TV, Channel 4, and the online publications Espreso, Svoi, and Channel 5.