Blockade of Ukraine’s “Grain Corridor”: “Shelter” Surveyed Experts on the Consequences, Forecasts, and Possible Solutions

As a reminder, at the start of the invasion, the enemy attacked ships heading for Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea, which made it extremely important for Ukraine to export its products to the global market.

In July 2022, an agreement was signed on the so-called “grain corridor,” through which Ukraine’s predominantly agricultural products could be transported relatively safely across the Black Sea for further delivery to consumers in various countries around the world.

About a year later, Russia withdrew from the agreement; however, Ukraine was able to organize agricultural shipments by sea in a way that minimized the threat posed by the aggressor country. And this worked more or less until the summer of 2026, when Russian airstrikes effectively made Ukrainian maritime exports impossible.

The government is fully aware of the gravity of the situation.

In early August, the new Prime Minister, Serhiy Koretskyi, held a meeting with representatives of the agricultural sector to identify the measures needed to address this problem.

“We are working on diversifying and restoring supply channels. At the same time, we are preparing a package of measures to support the industry, particularly in cooperation with banks to provide financing for producers, and we are stepping up diplomatic efforts with partner countries that are key export markets,” the prime minister said.

What are the forecasts and possible solutions to this situation? Find out in this article by “Shelter.”

Growth on the Eve of the Collapse

In a bitter irony, July turned out to be perhaps the most successful month since the start of the war in terms of customs revenue, a significant portion of which comes from agricultural exports.

According to the State Customs Service of Ukraine, compared to July 2025, revenue increased by more than 13.1 billion UAH, or 20.2%.

And all this despite the shelling of ports by Russia. 

“The destruction of facilities belonging to taxpayer enterprises and imported goods, as well as the suspension of maritime transport through Ukrainian ports, had a significant impact on economic activity in Ukraine in July. Despite these challenges, businesses continue to operate and contribute to the budget,” according to a statement from the State Customs Service of Ukraine.

Such encouraging news naturally inspires optimism; however, given that the intensity of enemy shelling only increased at the end of July, its devastating consequences for budget revenues and for the country’s economy as a whole will be felt as early as the coming months.

What will these consequences be?

According to Maksym Hopka, an analyst with the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club (UACB), it is premature to speak of a complete blockade of the Ukrainian maritime corridor at this time, but the actual situation has recently become significantly more complicated.

The situation is becoming increasingly threatening for farmers.

"Export purchase prices at Black Sea ports have already fallen by 1,500–2,000 UAH per metric ton (while the average price of wheat in mid-July was 8,750 UAH/t, by early August it had dropped to 6,750 UAH/t—Ed.), and the costs of alternative logistics remain high. This is worsening the liquidity of agricultural enterprises, especially during the harvest season, when producers need working capital to carry out fieldwork and prepare for the new season,” says Maksym Hopka.

A Problem for the Entire Economy

The agricultural sector occupies a special place in the Ukrainian economy, currently accounting for 60% of all domestic exports. In addition to budget revenues from customs duties, agricultural exports generate significant foreign exchange earnings, which reached $12.6 billion in the first half of 2026. On the one hand, these foreign currency inflows help stabilize the domestic foreign exchange market; on the other hand, they enable farmers (after they sell the currency within Ukraine) to repay loans and pay taxes, which fill the budget.

Therefore, the blockade of the maritime corridor—through which approximately 90% of all agricultural exports are typically transported—creates significant problems for Ukraine’s entire economy.

"If full-scale operations at deep-water ports cannot be restored in the near future, grain exports in the 2026/27 marketing year could decline by approximately 20%—to about 30 million metric tons, compared to 37.5 million metric tons in the previous season. This will mean lower foreign exchange earnings, additional pressure on the state budget, and a decline in the agricultural sector’s revenues,” warns Maksym Hopka of the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club (UCAB).

So far, all estimates of potential losses are very rough.

According to him, unlike last year, the remaining stocks from the previous harvest are not very large, which alleviates the situation somewhat; however, the new season’s harvest is already coming in.

“The new harvest should already be arriving at the grain elevators. This will be particularly noticeable starting in late August, as well as in September and October,” the expert explains. “Farmers are now reporting that they’ve expanded their storage capacity—meaning they have space to store grain—but reserves aren’t unlimited, and I think time is running out; we could see a repeat of the 2022 situation.”

We Have Experience

The government must respond to the challenges created by the enemy, and, judging by the prime minister’s statements, appropriate measures are already being taken.

All the more so because the country already has experience that can be put to use today.

Back in 2022, due to the inability to export goods from Black Sea ports, alternative export routes were established—via ports on the Danube, as well as by land—by rail and road.

“Right now, our export volumes are slightly lower (than before), and if you look at this issue from a technical standpoint, the alternative route is capable of handling these volumes,” says Oleg Nivievsky of the Kyiv School of Economics. “But how realistic is it right now to transport all of this across the western borders? It takes time, and in any case, logistics costs haven’t gone away—meaning it will still be more expensive, and the agricultural sector will lose out on revenue.”

UCAB analyst Maksym Hopka agrees that the experience of the first years of full-scale war has shown that alternative channels are capable of handling significant export volumes, but adds that their effectiveness depends on various factors, including the functioning of border infrastructure, transportation availability, and support from European partners.

Speaking of borders and European partners: In 2022–2023, Ukrainian exports were blocked at the borders of Slovakia, Hungary, and especially Poland by local farmers, who claimed that the influx of Ukrainian agricultural products was driving down their prices.

Vladimir Balin, vice president of the Association of International Carriers, in a conversation with “Shelter,” did not rule out that this year, if exports are rerouted through Poland in particular, border blockades could happen again.

However, he said it is still too early to discuss this.

“The Polish authorities have passed a law prohibiting blockades near infrastructure facilities, so I hope it won’t come to that,” he explained.

Furthermore, according to the expert, such blockades are actually not in Poland’s best interest.

According to Maksym Hopka, much of the resolution of the issue regarding Ukrainian agricultural exports will depend on the Ukrainian government, which must coordinate its actions with domestic farmers.

And it’s not just about logistics.

“One of the key tasks is to support farmers through affordable credit, expanding the ‘5-7-9%’ program, launching a lending program for the planting season—where existing grain will serve as collateral—and other financial instruments,” Gopka noted.