Changes at the NBU? "Shelter" has learned of possible candidates to replace Pyshnyy

The main criticisms leveled at Pyshnyy are his alleged closeness to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and his insufficient efforts to support the country’s war economy.

As for the IMF, which continues to provide financial assistance to Ukraine, the president, according to Bloomberg, is frustrated by some of the conditions attached to the loan tranches.

Most likely, this refers to the requirement to introduce a 20% VAT for Ukrainian sole proprietors operating under the simplified tax system. As of today, the Verkhovna Rada has failed to pass the VAT bill for those under the simplified system. However, it appears the Fund will not insist on fulfilling this condition for now, although it will likely return to it sooner or later.

At the same time, the author of the Bloomberg article noted that Zelenskyy currently has no plans to dismiss Pyshnyy, as he does not see any strong candidates to replace him.

To what extent are the rumors about Pyshnyy’s possible dismissal justified? Read about it in “Shelter’s” article.

Can’t fire, can’t keep

It should be noted that it is not possible to simply dismiss Andriy Pyshnyy, whose term does not expire until 2029, as there must be very serious grounds for doing so.

A source speaking to “Shelter,” who holds a senior position within the government, pointed out that the NBU governor is appointed for a seven-year term, and the law quite clearly defines the grounds on which he can be dismissed.

“This was done specifically to ensure that the terms of National Bank governors do not coincide with political cycles,” he said.

Let’s turn to the current legislation.

Article 18 of the Law on the “National Bank of Ukraine” stipulates that the NBU governor may be removed from office upon the expiration of his term, in connection with a resignation, upon the termination of Ukrainian citizenship, the establishment that he holds citizenship of another state, or his departure to take up permanent residence abroad.

The head of the National Bank may also be dismissed if he fails to perform his official duties—including due to health reasons—for more than four consecutive months.

Another grounds for dismissal is providing false information about oneself upon appointment to the position.

Finally, the head of the NBU may be dismissed if he violates the requirements of the Law “On Preventing Threats to National Security Related to the Excessive Influence of Persons Who Have Significant Economic and Political Weight in Public Life (oligarchs)” regarding the submission and adherence to deadlines for filing a declaration of contacts.

Incidentally, Andriy Pyshnyy’s predecessor—Kyrylo Shevchenko—resigned due to health issues. In addition, he left Ukraine, fearing criminal prosecution on suspicion of embezzlement, which he called politically motivated.

Is there any reason listed in the law for which Andriy Pyshnyy could be dismissed?

It is extremely difficult to answer this question—at first glance, it would seem not, but given the realities of domestic politics, where the guiding principle is “if you really want to, you can,” who knows.

Theoretically, one could point to the fact that Andriy Pyshnyy’s name is mentioned in the “Mindich tapes.” However, Pyshnyy himself has denied any contact with the individuals featured in the released recordings, and there is currently no information about any investigative actions against him.

Nevertheless, let’s repeat: in Ukrainian politics, almost anything is possible.

According to one theory, the resignation of the National Bank’s governor could be considered by the Verkhovna Rada immediately after lawmakers return from their recess on August 18.

On the other hand, Bloomberg’s report that Pyshnyy’s dismissal is not currently being considered seems quite plausible. One possible reason is that, according to another “Shelter” source in financial circles, the head of the NBU, “to put it mildly,” has strong support within the Office of the President. Is this influence enough to keep him in office? We’ll find out soon enough. 

All the key figures are familiar

But let’s assume that Andriy Pyshnyy is dismissed after all. What happens next?

As a reminder, according to Bloomberg, the president does not know who could be appointed as head of the National Bank to replace Pyshnyy.

According to Bloomberg, Davyd Arakhamia, the leader of the “Servant of the People” faction in the Verkhovna Rada, is reportedly lobbying for the candidacy of Danylo Getmantsev, who currently heads the parliamentary committee on finance, tax, and customs policy. The publication also names the current first deputy head of the NBU, Serhiy Nikolaychuk, as another potential candidate.

Danylo Getmantsev has already spoken out quite sharply regarding his possible “appointment.”

“I would advise Bloomberg… to read the law on the NBU, which clearly defines the requirements for the NBU governor—requirements that I do not meet,” he wrote on his Telegram channel.

Mr. Getmantsev does not specify the relevant legal requirements, but they most likely pertain to the stipulation that the head of the National Bank must hold a full higher education degree in economics or finance (as per Article 18 of the Law on the “National Bank of Ukraine”). Danylo Getmantsev, however, has a law degree, so he is indeed not qualified for the position of NBU head.

Now regarding the candidacy of Serhiy Nikolaychuk. 

“In principle, for Nikolaychuk to become head of the NBU, all that’s needed is to dismiss Pyshnyy, at which point the first deputy would automatically become acting head,” wrote Vitaliy Shapran, an economist and former member of the National Bank of Ukraine’s Council, on Facebook. “This is one of the possible scenarios, but not the best one—though it’s not catastrophic either.”

However, according to Shapran, it would be difficult for the central bank head to establish stable relations with international partners while serving in an acting capacity. 

So, are there people in the country who could lead the central bank?

The aforementioned source from Ukraine’s financial circles, speaking to “Shelter,” mentions several names. Among them, incidentally, is Vitaliy Shapran himself, who previously served on the NBU Council, as well as former Minister of Economy and former Chairman of the National Bank’s Council Bohdan Danylyshyn, and even Ukraine’s third president, Viktor Yushchenko, who, as a reminder, headed the National Bank from 1993 to 1999.

“It’s also possible to select someone from among current bankers at smaller banks. For example, it could be (Serhiy) Mamedov from ‘Globus Bank,’” adds the publication’s source.

However, “Shelter” does not currently know whether consultations have been held with any of the individuals mentioned regarding the possibility of heading the National Bank. 

And finally, we’d like to add that First Deputy Governor of the NBU Serhiy Nikolaychuk could become not just an acting head, but the full-fledged head of the central bank, if the president submits his candidacy to the Verkhovna Rada and the deputies support it.

However, it is entirely possible that this will not be necessary, and Andriy Pyshnyy will remain in the chair of the National Bank of Ukraine. Here, as they say, it’s a 50-50 chance.