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Fedorov strikes back

Volodymyr Fesenko
Volodymyr Fesenko

political scientist

Fedorov strikes back

Opinions

Fedorov’s video address calling for elections effectively marks the former defense minister’s move to the opposition. In the current situation, this is a response to the fact that the possibility of his return to the post of defense minister has been definitively ruled out. But now the stakes are rising.

Fedorov is essentially suggesting that, at some point in the future (and likely not too distant), Ukrainians should decide who is right in his confrontation with Zelenskyy. And this isn’t just about a personal conflict. Fedorov is directly alluding to a confrontation with the “collective Zelenskyy”—a group that visually includes both Yermak and Arakhamia, and which, given the context, is accused of corruption. This serves as a prelude to his own election campaign. It is also a call to launch a discussion about elections during wartime. And it is a way to radically reshape the political agenda and seize the strategic initiative in domestic politics.

The minimum goal of this appeal is to influence the vote in the Verkhovna Rada on the defense minister. If he succeeds in stirring up the emotions and political sentiments of the deputies, then this could derail the vote on the defense minister and create a new situation in parliament.

The ultimate goal is to radically reshape the domestic political process through the idea of holding elections during wartime. At present, the majority of Ukrainians oppose elections during wartime. However, there is a noticeable trend toward a decrease in the number of people opposed to elections during wartime. Currently, slightly more than half of Ukrainians oppose elections during wartime. Fedorov’s speech could shift this balance. The number of supporters of elections during wartime could increase significantly.

But how should these elections be held?

It is practically impossible to hold normal elections following standard procedures during a war like the one we are currently facing.  

This is where tech guru Mykhailo Fedorov can propose alternative voting technologies—voting via smartphone and, possibly, voting by mail as well. I am confident that he will soon present his specific proposals on this matter. He will proceed step by step to maintain the initiative at all times.

As for criticism of electronic voting, we will now see that many people, especially in the opposition, will change their minds about smartphone voting.

It is simply the easiest way, even on a very tight schedule, to hold the Ukrainian presidential election. And this election will effectively turn into a referendum on confidence in Zelenskyy and Fedorov—and a choice between Zelenskyy and Fedorov. And this, apparently, is also part of Fedorov’s strategy. He cannot and will not wait. In this sense, he is very similar to Zelenskyy. And Fedorov will fight against Zelenskyy in his own style—decisively and quickly, but with his own technological advantages, which Zelenskyy lacks.

And right now, “Cardboard Maidan” and all of Zelenskyy’s opponents are getting new slogans and a guiding principle that will serve as their driving force.

It seems that a fundamentally new phase of Ukraine’s domestic political situation is beginning amid the war. But let’s not forget about the war itself. The war is the main challenge for all of us, including Zelenskyy and Fedorov.

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  • Author

    • Volodymyr Fesenko
      Volodymyr Fesenko

      political scientist

      Ukrainian political scientist and chairman of the board of the "Penta" Center for Applied Political Studies. Winner of the 2020 Celebrity Awards in the "Political Scientist of the Year" category.

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