We should not be afraid of the fact that Ukraine's war with Russia will last forever

In a scenario where “they have assault rifles and we have the Iron Dome,” we could fight for decades. In a scenario where the casualty ratio is one to one hundred, we could fight for centuries.

Russia is actually very fragile, because by the first half of 2026, everyone will see that it has no rear. The 3,000-kilometer range of our weapons covers more than 80% of its industrial capacity.

At the same time, our rear is, de facto, the pool of our allies. Although this pool is volatile, even in the worst-case scenario—such as waves of anti-Ukrainian sentiment in Poland or a shift in political course, as with the U.S.—it does not turn into an enemy but continues to provide assistance.

Some are touting China as a potential ally of Russia, but China is not at all to the Russians what Europe and North America are to Ukrainians. First, it is a neutral country, not an ally; China would never, even in its worst nightmare, see itself as a sponsor of Russia. China’s choice is simply whether to trade with Russia at market prices or, taking advantage of Russia’s difficult situation, to raise prices above market levels, and so on.

So, in the coming decades, we are unlikely to change Russia’s perception of its historical mission, which currently consists of destroying Ukraine. The Russians’ obsession with the idea of killing us all will not fade quickly, because it has built up (both artificially and naturally) over the past decades. And Putin is right that we cannot simply stop playing this mobilizing game.

But we can force them to play this game the way we need them to. So that hatred becomes less and less effective, so that the idea of ACTIVELY exterminating Ukrainians becomes increasingly marginalized, so that other issues rise to the top of the agenda—migrants, ethnic minorities, religious and cultural conflicts, and China, for that matter.

Destroying the belief that victory over Ukraine is possible, shifting the object of hatred, and stirring up a wave of disillusionment—these are entirely achievable goals. The war between Russians and Ukrainians will continue; we cannot avoid this in the coming years, but the level of danger can be managed.

Source: Igor Lutsenko’s Telegram channel