
investment banker
I wonder if the Russians would have been able to stir up such panic if Fedorov hadn't resigned in Ukraine
The Russians have done it again. All of a sudden, I saw panic sweep through a significant portion of social media and real people. And here come the usual cries of “we’re all going to die.” And Russian disinformation claiming “we must negotiate at any cost.” And suddenly, panic-mongering stories about hyperinflation, famine, and who knows what else.
The level of hysteria is off the charts. Meanwhile, economists just shrug their shoulders and don’t understand where all this economic panic is coming from.
Even one actress on social media suddenly wrote that for the first time, she’s thinking about fleeing with her children. Interesting. So the first large-scale attacks on the power grid in the winter of 2022–23 didn’t make anyone think twice, even when almost everything the Russians launched was hitting Kyiv. The summer of 2024, with its severe electricity shortage amid 40-degree heat, didn’t make them think twice either. The summer of 2025, when hundreds of suicide bombers reached Kyiv overnight along with the missiles, didn’t make her think twice either. And the winter in Kyiv, when hundreds of homes were without heat or electricity, didn’t give her any hint. And then, suddenly, a single shelling, and the lady changed her mind. Interestingly, this same actress had appeared at the “cardboard Maidan” with provocative slogans that were more in line with Russian propaganda narratives than with the youth protest movement.
So what happened? The Russians once again successfully seized the moment to stir up panic, and a whole bunch of people fell for it. We’ve seen this happen very often—especially when combined with the use of “useful idiots.” The shelling of Okhmatdyt is further proof of this.
The strikes on Kyiv are, first and foremost, psychological attacks. Just as Ukrainian attacks on the warehouses of a single large company are incapable of collapsing Russia’s economy, so too are Russian strikes on businesses—though very painful for the businesses themselves—incapable of causing an economic catastrophe. That’s not how it works. The economy is resilient. Business is resilient. Restructuring and adaptation will take place, and everything will continue to function virtually unchanged for the end consumer.
So no, there will be no hyperinflation. There’s no reason for it. What’s more, export problems mean that more agricultural products remain within the country. This, in turn, helps lower prices.
No, there will be no banking crisis. There is simply no reason for one.
No, there will be no mass layoffs. Businesses are actually facing a labor shortage.
And no, this doesn’t even apply to the entire territory of Ukraine. Because the range of ballistic missiles is limited. And Shahed drones and cruise missiles barely reach beyond Vinnytsia.
And here’s another common misconception: extrapolating short-term trends into long-term ones. Have the Russians increased their ballistic missile production? No. So their higher number of strikes can’t be sustained over the long term; they’re concentrating their efforts right now precisely because they want to have an emotional impact. This escalation is taking place against the backdrop of Ukraine’s growing capabilities to strike Russia. And yes, Ukraine’s capabilities have grown significantly. Russia’s, however, have not changed.
And yes, it’s difficult for us to counter ballistic missiles right now. Or impossible. But anyone who was in Kyiv in May 2023 remembers how amazed we were by the Patriot system. Because before that, we had nothing that could shoot down ballistic missiles.
Moreover, these changes pertain specifically to Kyiv. For other cities in Ukraine, nothing has changed. They never had any protection against ballistic missiles to begin with. And so far, having this advantage hasn’t helped Russia destroy the Ukrainian economy in any way. What’s more, even Kharkiv is still functioning. Although it’s only 40 km from the border, and it’s not just ballistic missiles that reach it.
So we need to calm down. We need to take people with fragile mental states by the hand and help them regain their sanity.
It’s interesting, of course, to wonder whether the Russians would have succeeded in stirring up such panic if Fedorov—whom many associated with hope and who could have shifted public tolerance toward this psychological attack—hadn’t resigned in Ukraine. Although that is, of course, a rhetorical question...
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Sergiy Fursa investment banker
All materialsUkrainian investment banker, financial expert, columnist, radio and television host