“It Looks Like Trump Is Going All In”: What the U.S. President Fears and Why His Setbacks Do Little to Help the Democrats

After all, such large-scale party conventions are traditionally held in presidential election years, when a party nominates its candidate. This convention effectively served as a way to place Donald Trump at the center of the campaign.

“Imagine if I were on the ballot myself,” Trump urged his supporters from the stage. With less than two months left until the midterm congressional elections on November 3, the Republicans are raising the stakes. “Shelter” examined why Trump felt the need to turn the congressional elections into yet another campaign for himself, given his low approval ratings, and what chances the Republican Party has of retaining control of Congress.

How does Trump plan to pay $5,000 to those who vote for Republicans?

“If the Republicans win, you’ll win with us and get $5,000”—this statement by Trump became the most widely quoted and shocked not only voters but also some Republicans themselves. Republican Congressman David Schweikert of Arizona told Reuters that he would do “everything in his power” to stop the $5,000 payments. “This will actually do more harm to working people than it will ever help them,” Schweikert said.

According to him, a massive injection of money could push interest rates even higher. In fact, the congressman emphasized, Americans will receive this $5,000 “on their own credit card” at the expense of a further increase in the national debt. Schweikert warned that such a policy would only bring the U.S. closer to a debt spiral.

According to estimates by foreign media, with approximately 270 million American adults, the potential cost of such payments could reach $1.3 trillion. However, following this statement, Jay D. Vance had to clarify that not everyone would receive the money—in particular, not the wealthiest Americans—and he cited tariff revenues as a source of funding. But this is unlikely to be enough, since tariff revenues this year amounted to only about $167 billion.

Roman Sheremeta, a professor of economics at Case Western Reserve University in the U.S., believes that with such statements, the Republican Party is turning into a Communist Party.

“Let’s forget for a moment that this is simply bribery and populism, and focus solely on the numbers. There are approximately 270 million adults living in the United States. 270 million × $5,000 = $1.35 trillion. First, America already has nearly $40 trillion in debt. Adding another $1.35 trillion in spending will put even more pressure on an already enormous financial burden. Second, we’ve heard similar promises before. Previously, Trump promised tariff dividends of $2,000 and issued DOGE dividends worth $5,000. Neither of these led to checks being sent to Americans,” writes Sheremeta.

Oleksandr Kraiev, an expert at “Ukrainian Prism,” points out that such statements are illegal and can also be considered direct bribery of voters and pressure on private business and private capital.

“As Trump stated during his speech, the payments are in fact to be financed by ‘good businesses’ willing to spend their own money on this. It’s worth recalling that this isn’t the first time Trump has promised Americans such payments. At the start of his second presidential term, he spoke of $2,000 from the proceeds of new tariffs. He also promised every adult American a $5,000 check thanks to savings allegedly achieved by the Department of Government Efficiency under Elon Musk’s leadership. The idea was that the government had saved so much money that a portion could be distributed to citizens. However, Trump failed to fulfill either the first or the second promise. So, to be honest, I very much doubt that he will fulfill the third one either,” says Kraev.

Economist Boris Kushniruk draws attention to the state of the U.S. economy and points out that Trump is unlikely to be able to afford such promises.

According to him, for now, the United States can finance its deficit by issuing dollars and thanks to the special status of the U.S. currency, which allows it to purchase goods abroad.

"Therefore, it is too early to draw dramatic conclusions about inevitable fundamental changes. However, the U.S., like most Western countries, is experiencing a systemic crisis with no easy solution. Therefore, the coming period will be very difficult for them,” explains Kushniruk.

Is Trump’s show an attempt to avoid impeachment?

As Ihor Hryniv, head of the “Janus” Institute for Strategic Studies and Forecasts, explains, Republicans are effectively running several parallel campaigns at once.

“The first is Trump himself, who remains the primary tool for mobilizing his core, loyal electorate. He is the one who ensures maximum mobilization of his voters. Trump uses this very effectively: he works hard, travels across the states, is constantly present in the campaign—as you can see, he’s everywhere,” the political strategist explains to “Shelter.”

The Republican candidates themselves, he says, are trying to reach beyond the traditional MAGA electorate and attract moderate voters. However, they’re doing so primarily through bold economic promises and scare tactics.

“In fact, two parallel campaigns are being waged simultaneously. One is a mobilization campaign, where Trump remains the main tool. The other is a populist campaign aimed at expanding the electoral base through simple and understandable promises,” Hryniv notes.

The political strategist points out that, alongside promises of money, Trump is using another tool he typically relies on—fear. Americans are being convinced that a Democratic victory will bring instability and disaster to the country.

According to the expert, such an aggressive campaign is driven by more than just the Republicans’ desire to retain their majority in Congress. For Trump himself, the election outcome has personal political significance.

“The campaign is very harsh, and it looks like Trump is going all in. It’s not just about a majority in the Senate or the House of Representatives. The word ‘impeachment’ is being mentioned. And Trump is afraid of that word,” Hryniv emphasizes.

Interestingly, Trump himself is warning his fellow Republicans that if the Republicans lose control of the House of Representatives, the Democrats could launch a new impeachment proceeding. According to Hryniv, the president is using this threat to demand maximum discipline from the party.

“Just today, addressing his fellow party members and motivating them to work hard, he said he understands that if we lose, the next step will simply be impeachment. And then all his plans will be at risk. So this is no longer just an election strategy. For Trump, this election actually has personal political significance,” the expert explains.

Alexander Kraev shares this assessment. According to him, the scale of the convention—unusual for a midterm election—indicates that the president and his team view the Republicans’ situation as genuinely dangerous.

“The very fact that this convention is being held shows that all is not well in the ‘Kingdom of Denmark.’ Trump needed to once again cement the image of his ‘imperial presidency’ and demonstrate his strength. Holding such large-scale events during a midterm election campaign is unusual for Republicans,” Kraev explains to “Shelter.”

The expert articulates the president’s main motivation even more directly.

“As Trump himself told his supporters: if we lose this election, I’ll be impeached, and then our fairy tale will be over. It was precisely to maintain this image and continue this ‘fairy tale’ that he needed to hold such a large-scale and high-profile event,” Kraev believes.

Why are Republicans still sticking with Trump?

Despite the president’s plummeting approval rating—estimated at around 33%—the Republican Party currently has no other figure capable of mobilizing voters as effectively. Over the years of his political dominance, Trump has reshaped the party in his own image and become its chief personnel decision-maker.

“Trump is what’s known as a ‘kingmaker’—someone who determines exactly who will have the opportunity to run as the party’s nominee. We see this in the congressional primaries: there, the winners are almost exclusively candidates whom Trump has endorsed or who are close to him,” notes Kraev.

Internal party opposition remains weak, although the absence of some prominent Republicans at the event showed that the party is not as united as the president would like to portray it.

“It’s good that there are still people in the Republican Party who are willing to voice their dissent. The unity we’re talking about does, after all, have certain exceptions. This shows that the party isn’t as monolithic as Trump tries to portray it,” the expert says.

However, for now, most Republicans are not ready to openly oppose the president. First, Trump retains control over the party’s core electorate. Second, his support often determines the outcome of Republican primaries.

“Trump has managed to change the American political system to such an extent that his influence is nearly absolute, affecting both the executive and legislative branches. Therefore, Republicans have no choice but to indulge him and play along with his ambitions and political stance,” explains Kraev.

Furthermore, Republicans continue to view Trump as politically effective.

According to him, the party hopes that Trump’s core base—whose representatives already control many local party structures—will once again secure the Republicans, if not a decisive victory, then at least a formal one.

Will the Democrats be able to capitalize on Trump’s weakness?

The decline in Trump’s and the Republican Party’s approval ratings should automatically strengthen the Democrats. However, this is not happening. The opposition is also losing support and is failing to present Americans with a convincing alternative.

“According to the logic of political science, the opposition’s popularity should grow in proportion to the losses suffered by its main opponents. The Democrats should be proposing an alternative course and demonstrating active and productive work. However, the opposition is doing none of this,” Kraev notes.

One of the Democrats’ main problems remains the lack of a charismatic national leader.

“I often ask my students a rhetorical question: Who is currently the leader of the Democratic Party? Gavin Newsom is vying for that role. Neither Chuck Schumer nor House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is a strong enough politician to challenge Trump or any other leading Republican,” notes Kraev.

Ihor Hryniv also believes that the Democrats lack a unifying figure, whereas Trump remains that figure for the Republicans.

“The Democrats may currently have broader ideological support than the Republicans, but they lack a unifying force, a strong leader, or a set of ideas that would compel their voters to go to the polls. A reluctance to vote for Trump does not necessarily mean a willingness to vote for the Democrats,” the expert explains.

According to him, the Democrats are currently effectively ceding the information initiative to Trump.

“The massive Republican convention was a huge spectacle. Whether Trump said something right or wrong—it doesn’t matter. He’s quoted anyway. The story about the $5,000 checks is making the rounds, and it’s dominating the news cycle. On the Democratic side, things are much quieter so far. It seems to me that they’ve let their guard down too quickly,” Hryniv warns.

Economist Boris Kushniruk cites the strengthening of the party’s left wing following Trump’s victory as an additional problem for the Democrats.

“This could lead to voters with more centrist views not voting for Republicans, but they won’t necessarily support the Democrats either. Some Democratic supporters may simply not show up at the polls,” explains Kushniruk.

That is precisely why Trump’s decline in support does not yet mean an automatic victory for his opponents.

“I wouldn’t say that the Republicans are definitely going to lose. Most likely, they’ll lose the House of Representatives. However, over the past hundred years, it has been rare for the president’s party not to lose the midterm elections for the House of Representatives. As a rule, it loses ground there, so this should be viewed as a regular feature of the American political model,” the economist notes.

Thus, the Democrats have a real chance of taking control of the House of Representatives, but the outcome will depend primarily on voter turnout. Trump has lower approval ratings, but he retains a loyal and well-mobilized electorate. The Democrats may have a broader pool of potential supporters, but so far they have offered them neither a strong leader nor sufficient motivation to go to the polls.

In a conversation with “Shelter,” experts summarize the main point: the event in Dallas was more than just a party convention for Trump. It was an attempt to turn his personal charisma into votes, retain control of Congress, and protect himself from the threat of impeachment.