Russia Still Has the Capacity to Fight: Head of the Main Intelligence Directorate on Russian Casualties on the Front Lines and the Kremlin’s Mobilization Plans
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Russia is losing up to 1,500 troops a day, but still has the resources to continue fighting. To make up for these losses, it is recruiting foreigners from more than 40 countries into its armed forces. The Kremlin is planning a large-scale mobilization.
This was stated by Oleg Ivashchenko, head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, according to "Ukrinform."
According to the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate, the average daily Russian casualties range from 1,200 to 1,400 people, and sometimes reach 1,500. This figure includes those killed and seriously wounded.
To compensate for these manpower losses, the Russians are deploying foreign nationals from more than 40 countries—including countries in Central Asia, Africa, and Latin America—in combat operations. They are primarily used in assault units. In intercepted communications, the Russians themselves refer to them as “allies” and often send them ahead of their own troops
Oleg IvashchenkoHead of the Main Intelligence Directorate
At the same time, the number of Russians dissatisfied with the war is growing. Ukrainian intelligence predicts that this number will continue to rise.
It is difficult to say whether a sufficiently strong protest movement will emerge. But already more than 60% of people are against the war. This is a consequence of the economic situation and the enemy’s heavy human losses. We can say that the model of contract-based recruitment in Russia has largely run its course. We see that regional budgets in the Russian Federation are no longer able to continue funding payments for contract recruitment
Oleg IvashchenkoHead of the Main Intelligence Directorate
Ivashchenko notes that foreign nationals do not solve Russia’s human resources problem. They can only partially offset the losses. Therefore, the Russian Federation is on the verge of a new mobilization.
We are seeing preparations for mobilization in the Russian Federation. Mobilization may take place without a high-profile public announcement—primarily in remote regions—to avoid creating additional tension in large metropolitan areas such as Moscow or St. Petersburg. According to our assessment, it may intensify after the so-called State Duma elections
Oleg IvashchenkoHead of the Main Intelligence Directorate
According to the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine, the Russian command is generally considering the possibility of additionally mobilizing approximately 600,000 people during 2026–2027. This involves 300,000 people this year and the same number next year.
According to Ivashchenko, without additional mobilization, Russia is currently capable of largely compensating for its losses and maintaining the size of its forces on the Ukrainian front.
But if the Kremlin wants not only to maintain the current scale of the war but also to carry out further military objectives—specifically, the complete occupation of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions—they will need additional personnel.
Oleg IvashchenkoHead of the Main Intelligence Directorate
As a reminder, amid intensified military recruitment efforts in Russia, fears are growing regarding a possible new mobilization. Over the course of the week, more than 113,000 people left Russia through the “Verkhniy Lars” border crossing, which is significantly higher than average figures.
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Igor Neporada news feed editor
All materialsHe has a degree in oil and gas processing technology, but has been working in the media since 2000.
He has worked as a regional editor for the following television channels: Espreso, UA/TV, Channel 4, and the online publications Espreso, Svoi, and Channel 5.