Burnham after Starmer: Will London Remain Kyiv’s Main Ally?

Burnham has become the fifth Prime Minister of the United Kingdom since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. During this time, the country has been led by Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, Rishi Sunak, and Keir Starmer. Despite frequent changes in government, support for Ukraine has remained one of the few areas of British policy on which there has been broad cross-party consensus and public support. “Shelter” examined what Ukrainians can expect from the new prime minister and how cooperation between London and Kyiv might change.

Unwavering Support for Ukraine

One of Andy Burnham’s first international moves as prime minister was a phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. On his very first day at Downing Street, the new head of the British government reaffirmed his unwavering support for Ukraine, promised to maintain pressure on Russia, and invited Zelenskyy to the United Kingdom to discuss further cooperation. Ed Miliband, the new Foreign Secretary, took a similar step by immediately calling his Ukrainian counterpart, Andriy Sybiza, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister.

“I emphasized Britain’s unwavering and resolute support for the people of Ukraine. Ukraine is on the front lines of the fight for the values of freedom and democracy in Europe,” Miliband said.

Experts interviewed by “Shelter” are confident that support for Kyiv will remain part of a broader cross-party consensus and British security strategy. However, they note that the new prime minister and government still face difficult challenges. First and foremost, the political rhetoric the government uses to explain this support to the public may change.

Brooks Newmark, a former member of the British Parliament and ex-minister for civil society, says that Burnham’s first phone call with Zelenskyy was a positive sign for bilateral relations. But, as is always the case in politics, words must be backed up by actions. The key indicator going forward will be whether the new government increases military and financial aid to Ukraine.

British professor Tony Meehan cautions that every new government makes its own decisions, so one should not automatically expect complete policy continuity. The professor’s greatest concern is the lack of foreign policy and defense experience among Andy Burnham’s new government team.

“As of today, it is still too early to draw definitive conclusions about future support for Ukraine. However, there are currently no signs that British military aid will undergo significant changes,” he explains.

At the same time, Meehan emphasizes that the new government must fully recognize the threat that Russia poses to the United Kingdom and all of Europe, and that Ukraine should continue to actively convey key messages to British policymakers and the public: modern warfare has changed significantly, Russia remains a serious threat, and Ukraine’s experience is critically important for strengthening European security.

Rosalind Roberts, Director of Research at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), believes that the Russia-Ukraine war will be one of the first major tests for the new British prime minister.

“Ukraine’s current advantage on the battlefield and the increasingly tangible strain the war is placing on the Russian economy might give the impression that Moscow is interested in a ceasefire. However, all signs point to the opposite: Putin appears to be doubling down and may resort to further escalation to achieve a result he can present as a ‘victory.’ Such a turn of events would pose a serious challenge for Andy Burnham during his first six months in office. At the same time, if he is able to respond effectively to this challenge, it will significantly strengthen his authority in the realm of foreign policy,” Roberts notes.

According to her, the British government and Andy Burnham himself have already clearly stated their intention to maintain long-term support for Ukraine, demonstrating to Russia that London will remain on Kyiv’s side for as long as necessary. In the event of a further escalation of the war, the British prime minister will play a key role in mobilizing support for Ukraine from the UK, European allies, and the U.S., as well as in helping Zelenskyy resist potential international pressure to end hostilities prematurely.

Defense Cooperation

For two years now, Ukraine’s Ambassador to the United Kingdom, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, has been working to deepen the Ukrainian-British strategic partnership, particularly in the areas of defense, military-technical cooperation, and the development of joint weapons production. He identifies these areas as key elements of the long-term security of Ukraine and all of Europe.

“The United Kingdom remains one of Ukraine’s key strategic partners. Since 2022, London has provided over 13 billion pounds in military aid. It is this consistent support that has laid the groundwork for the transition from a model of aid to a mutually beneficial partnership. It is extremely important that this cooperation is now reaching a new level: from the supply of weapons to the joint creation of new defense industries,” Zaluzhny wrote on his social media accounts.

According to him, the task for governments now is to provide the necessary technologies and weapons not only to the military but, in fact, to the entire economy. “No one in the world has done this before, but this is precisely the path Ukraine is now taking. Our experience in the fields of drones, electronic warfare, autonomous systems, and artificial intelligence should shape the development of defense technologies in NATO countries, as this is needed first and foremost by the Alliance itself,” Zaluzhny noted.

Political experts note that for the new prime minister, support for Ukraine could become not only a matter of international security but also a key element of his economic policy. London is increasingly emphasizing that investment in defense means investment in its own industry.

Since the start of the full-scale invasion, the United Kingdom has already allocated up to £21.8 billion in aid to Ukraine, of which £13 billion is for military support. At the same time, the government has committed to providing Ukraine with £3 billion in military aid annually through at least 2030–2031, and in 2026 alone, the total amount of British military support will reach £3.75 billion.

Over the years, the defense-industrial partnership has only grown stronger. For example, the agreement on cooperation in the defense industry signed between the two countries has opened the door to financing joint projects through £3.5 billion in export financing, and a separate agreement on the exchange of military technologies provides for the joint development of unmanned systems and other modern weapons.

This year, the largest-ever drone package was announced—at least 120,000 drones for Ukraine—and London has invested over £500 million in strengthening Ukraine’s air defense and launched a new phase of manufacturing cooperation.

Specifically, in Sheffield, after a hiatus of nearly twenty years, production of 105- and 155-mm artillery barrels for Ukraine has resumed under a £61 million contract, which is creating jobs and keeping British defense companies busy.

Since the start of the full-scale invasion, the United Kingdom has been training Ukrainian military personnel. As part of Operation Interflex, British and allied (NATO) instructors have already trained more than 63,000 Ukrainian service members. The program includes both basic training and training for flight instructors, engineers, and medical personnel.

At the same time, the UK is working on new joint defense projects, including high-precision missile systems that can be manufactured without American components, giving London greater freedom in transferring weapons to Kyiv.